BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in New Jersey has surged: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+151%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in New Jersey: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 30–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 30–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025332938
2026342938
2027343039
2028343039
2029353039

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Gray Catbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomona7020241978
Kemah Lake6320241966
Croton 25920242008
Winslow5320241989
Ramseysburg5320241995
Hope5119941970
Bloomsbury5120241969
Gillette4620241988
Croton4520071970
Holmansville4420091969
Dover3920231977
Cranbury3920241987
Sandbrook3420241969
Cape May Ch3120131992
Pottersville3020241977
Woodbury Hgt2920241967
Roosevelt2820221986
Bennett Mill 22820242016
Toms River2720241966
High Point2620241977
Bennett Mill2520001966
New Bedford2420241969
Friendship2420241977
Keyport2120221986
Del Haven2119911991

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.