BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in New Jersey has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+150%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in New Jersey: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New Jersey is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 30–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New Jersey is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 30–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026332938
2027342938
2028342939
2029343039
2030353039

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Gray Catbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bloomsbury7020251969
Kemah Lake6320241966
Croton 26120252008
Pomona5220251978
Hope5119941970
Gillette4820251988
Winslow4620251989
Croton4520071970
Holmansville4420091969
Dover3920231977
Sandbrook3520251969
Ramseysburg3320251995
High Point3120251977
Cape May Ch3120131992
Pottersville3020241977
Roosevelt2820221986
Toms River2720241966
Friendship2720251977
Bennett Mill 22620252016
Bennett Mill2520001966
New Bedford2420241969
Woodbury Hgt2120251967
Keyport2120221986
Del Haven2119911991
Villas1819811979

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.