BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Montana has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Montana is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.88–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Montana is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.88–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.842.0
20271.40.852.0
20281.40.862.0
20291.50.872.0
20301.50.882.1

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock920251977
Clancy820252015
Kalispell720251968
Heart Butte720252015
St. Mary 2620252009
Savage520251969
Flatwillow520081970
Reed Point520251977
St Xavier520111980
Highwood420251968
Forsyth420211989
Chinook420252015
Hehn Draw420252016
Libby Dam320251979
Willow Creek 2320251982
Raynesford320252016
Freeman Creek320162015
Chuffey Spring320252016
St Mary220081968
Glasgow220251972
Redstone220251976
Roy219991997
Circle219751973
Clinton220221975
Sula220222007

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.