BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Montana has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Montana is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.99 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.88–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Montana is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.99 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.88–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.842.0
20261.40.852.0
20271.50.862.0
20281.50.872.0
20291.50.882.1

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed Point820241977
Chestnut720241968
Heart Butte720242015
Kalispell620241968
Flatwillow520081970
St Xavier520111980
Chinook520232015
Libby Dam420241979
Cleveland420241979
Woodman420221969
Elliston420241968
Forsyth420211989
East Glacier Park420242015
Wolf Creek420222015
Custer 2420242024
Redstone320231976
Ninemile320241995
Lima320241994
Willow Creek 2320241982
Freeman Creek320162015
Clyde Park320242018
St Mary220081968
Augusta220241976
Roy219991997
Circle219751973

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.