BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 52% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 52% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.110.000.27
20250.110.000.27
20260.100.000.27
20270.100.000.27
20280.100.000.27

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skiatook420021993
Ardmore319691968
Barnsdall219761976
Bartlesville220081974
Lookout220042004
Big Cedar120131967
Phroso119951995
Mcalester119901967
Phillips120061971
Mill Creek120032003
Ouachita Nf119961991
Cookietown119711971
Baron120031970
Canadian120151967
Indianola119931969
Holdenville120231972
Beggs120211973
Choctaw119991973
Noble120182018
Verden120161970
Peoria120231968
Welch120191968
Collinsville119901969
Wakita119961996
Rosston119681968

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.