BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Florida has surged: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+225%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Florida: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Florida is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Florida is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.23
20260.100.000.23
20270.100.000.23
20280.100.000.23
20290.100.000.23

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sanderson 2520242022
Mossy Head319851985
Defuniak Spr319941987
Alligator Pt320111995
Osceola220031992
Myakka Head220081987
Childs219971997
Betts220211988
Miller Xrds220111993
Oak Grove120152004
Ft Waltn Bch119851985
Blountstown120241994
Broad Branch120111977
Miccosukee120241996
Seminole Hls119871987
Apalachicola120181993
Port St Joe120111987
Steinhatchee119751975
Lovedale120091988
Croom120172017
Romeo119931993
Green Swamp120112011
Holey Land120232010
St Augustine119861986
Hilliard119851985

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.