BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Florida has surged: up 453% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+453%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Florida. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Florida is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Florida is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.25
20270.120.000.26
20280.120.000.26
20290.120.000.26
20300.120.000.26

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blountstown920251994
Sanderson 2520242022
Mossy Head319851985
Miccosukee320251996
Apalachicola320251993
Defuniak Spr319941987
Alligator Pt320111995
Osceola220031992
Myakka Head220081987
Childs219971997
Betts220211988
Miller Xrds220111993
Oak Grove120152004
Ft Waltn Bch119851985
Broad Branch120251977
Seminole Hls119871987
Port St Joe120111987
Steinhatchee119751975
Lovedale120091988
Croom120172017
Romeo119931993
Green Swamp120112011
Holey Land120232010
St Augustine119861986
Hilliard119851985

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.