BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Pennsylvania has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Pennsylvania: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 24–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 24–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025262328
2026262328
2027262329
2028262429
2029262429

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Collegeville8620241971
Pine Gr Mill6620241967
Drehersville 26520242000
Schaefferstown 26420242002
Jacobus6220241986
Doe Run6120241969
Ramsey6020231968
West Grove6019961966
Waller5820241971
Chatham4820241997
Wild Creek4820241988
Middletown4720241973
Millville4220241969
Sugar Grove4220241980
Geeseytown4120241987
Greentown3920241969
Waterstreet3920241968
Clear Spring3820241966
N Washington3620241967
Betula3620221973
Mt Gretna 23620222001
Eldred3420221973
Peters Mt3419941972
Elizabethvil3420241995
Berwick3420241985

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.