BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in New York has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in New York: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New York is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New York is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181423
2027181423
2028191423
2029191423
2030191423

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Gray Catbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Easton7320251967
Churchville6920251968
Macdougall5920251969
Catskills5820151967
Dryden5220251966
Purdy4920221980
Mt Hope4420101967
Cicero Ctr4220251966
Huntington3820231966
Naples3720251966
Manorville3620241966
Harris Hill3620252005
Duanesburg3520251966
Rifton3419861967
Cayuga3420251969
Mt Morris3420251967
Branchport3320241967
Rhinebeck3220251966
Penfield3220251968
Phillips Cr3120251967
Westbrookvle3020191966
Ballston Lk3019951967
Hamburg3020251967
Bedford2919961967
Oxford2919761967

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.