BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in New York has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in New York: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New York is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New York is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181322
2026181322
2027181322
2028181423
2029181423

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Gray Catbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville6820241968
North Easton5920241967
Catskills5820151967
Purdy4920221980
Cayuga4620241969
Mt Hope4420101967
Dryden4220241966
Cicero Ctr4120241966
Huntington3820231966
Naples3720241966
Manorville3620241966
Penfield3520241968
Rifton3419861967
Branchport3320241967
Macdougall3220241969
Rhinebeck3120241966
Westbrookvle3020191966
Ballston Lk3019951967
S Berne 23020242014
Bedford2919961967
Oxford2919761967
Somers2819771970
Trumansburg2820241966
Hamburg2820241967
Austerlitz2720241966

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.