BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Ohio has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+130%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Ohio: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Ohio is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Ohio is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.514
2027129.614
2028129.714
2029129.814
2030129.914

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dresden3720251966
Stonecreek3720251996
Birmingham3220241988
Lucerne2920251992
Omega2620241966
Marion2420231966
Coshocton2419911990
Pittsfield2320241992
Newcomerstwn1919951966
Marion 21920252024
Fulton1720251966
Keene1720231992
Meadowbrook1520211966
Baxter Ridge1520251998
Bloomville1420251992
Vickery1420251997
Mohican S.F.1420251992
Garrettsvile1319911966
Adamsville1319891971
Valley City1320251995
Bismark1219951967
Smithfield1220251966
Harveysburg1219961966
Dunlap1119881966
Bolins Mills1120251966

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.