BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Utah has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-34%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Utah. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Utah is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Utah is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.50
20270.180.000.50
20280.180.000.49
20290.180.000.49
20300.180.000.49

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardware Ranch820231995
Castleton619741974
Ant Flat-Ogden Can520251997
Jensen420252007
Hyrum319781976
Beck219771973
Altonah220251972
Lost Cr. Res220181995
Goshen220162016
Bicknell220182001
Moon Lake 2120232018
E. Bear Lake119971997
Oak City119741974
Logan Canyon120192005
Woodruff120252007
Bear River119971997
Randolph120101994
Soapstone120182006
Callao120252025
Gooseberry119991999
Beck 2120102009
Kamas120212010
Hanna120242002
Vernal120181999
Newcastle120112009

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.