BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Kentucky is projected to fall about 81% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Kentucky is projected to fall about 81% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.930.002.6
20270.820.002.5
20280.710.002.4
20290.600.002.3
20300.490.002.2

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paintsville2519951979
Pine Ridge1919781966
Pippa Passes1319971988
Staffordsvil1219971996
Beattyville920011966
Johnsonville920211966
Plum920251966
Gesling919731967
Phelps919971979
East Union820251966
Pleasurevill820251979
Hodgenville 2820232008
Kehoe719921966
Monticello620221968
Million 2620242006
Hodgenville520031967
Hudson520251966
Sewell Shop520251966
Dixon420222005
Levee419821966
Drakesboro420031966
Buena Vista420171966
Porter420251966
Mckee320251967
Kings Mtn320251966

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.