BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in South Carolina has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in South Carolina: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.001.6
20260.290.001.5
20270.250.001.5
20280.200.001.4
20290.160.001.4

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Gray Catbird in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little Mtn819881966
Boykin Ml Pd419661966
New Holland320241967
Salem Xrd320191982
Wagener220101967
Walterboro219971997
Pendleton219761966
Barton Creek220211967
Boiling Spgs219791967
Plum Branch220241977
Nixonville219951988
Ward220172017
Joanna220021999
Bennettsville220171998
Carvers Bay220111998
Cauthens Xrd220151983
Owings 2220142005
Chesnee220141992
Jamestown120191986
Hardeeville120221969
Rome120091967
Holly Hill120101993
Coward120221967
Foreston120091966
Dillon120111970

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.