BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in North Dakota is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.5–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in North Dakota is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.5–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.42.6
20272.11.52.7
20282.11.52.7
20292.11.52.7
20302.11.52.7

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Gray Catbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emerado1220251973
Cooperstown1220251969
Tobacco1020191968
Turtle Mtns1020251980
Stanley820251967
Sheyenne Lk520251980
Edgeley420251980
Buchanan420251968
Carpio420231967
Solen420252006
Loraine320181982
Denbigh320251968
Abercrombie 2320172013
Walcott220231967
Sydney219831969
Kempton220171968
Wimbledon220151995
Horsehead Lk220211980
Rolla220241969
Niles220231989
Regan220251969
Ft Yates220041970
Abercrombie220121968
Zap220241967
Parshall220101985

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.