BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Michigan has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+12%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Michigan is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.5–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–9.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Michigan is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.5–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.84.49.1
20266.84.49.1
20276.84.59.1
20286.84.59.1
20296.84.59.2

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barry S.G.A.3320121995
Cohoctah2720242021
Almena2720151993
Allegan Wma2020191993
Barry S.G.A. 22020192013
Nashville1820241968
Juniata1820241966
Mottville1720241967
New Buffalo1620141992
Belding1520031983
Drayton Plns1519871973
Hartland1520111992
Chippewa Lk.1520241992
No Bradley1320241970
Galesburg1220241966
Howardsville1220241969
Prattville1220211967
Lawrence1120241969
Bravo1120231974
North Branch1019991974
S Lyons1019921966
Deckerville1020241978
Remus920241974
Holt920241969
Tyre919961967

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.