BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Tennessee has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has collapsed in Tennessee: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.2
20260.000.001.2
20270.000.001.2
20280.000.001.2
20290.000.001.2

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Bank1019781966
Trenton720051966
Climer620041967
Brownsville520101968
Cornpone520241991
Tullahoma420151967
Lovell420191966
Fish Springs420231966
Collinwood320231966
Lewis Forest320101966
Jasper320241967
Soddy319811967
Mecca320162003
Mansfield220221966
Petersburg220191966
Bradyville220211966
Oliver Spgs220221966
Mt Olive220021969
Allens Brdge220221966
Tellico220221995
Cades Cove220191990
Signal Mtn120241979
Tiptonville120101966
Pawpaw120101966
Moscow120211966

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.