BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in North Carolina has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 1.1–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 1.1–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.71.26.2
20273.71.26.2
20283.71.16.2
20293.61.16.1
20303.61.16.1

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Gray Catbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mashoes4719821971
Washington4420252001
Dismal Swamp3220241993
Milltail Cr2120251992
Chowan River1820062002
Spring Hope1720252002
Sturgills1620252001
Arapahoe1319951966
Cayton1320242010
N. Mills Riv1219951994
California1120131972
Cullowhee1020251974
Green Swamp1020062002
Jonas Ridge919711968
Craven Gap919751969
Reelsboro920191997
Todd920251995
French Broad River920252001
Madison819851966
Linville820251976
Jarvisburg819991992
Ernul820092001
Brevard720251968
Mooresville620011966
Arcola620251971

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.