BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Arkansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Arkansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.46
20260.120.000.45
20270.110.000.43
20280.100.000.42
20290.090.000.41

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rupert320061967
Stark320231967
Avoca320241967
Stephens320222013
Hope220051970
Ashdown220231977
Augusta220001969
Centerton220232010
Ulm220001988
Dry Fork220222000
Old Milo120091967
Eudora119991968
Ramsey119961967
Locust Bayou120231967
Stamps120221970
Hughes119861982
West Tyler119831983
Ozark Nf120182008
Crows119841971
Poyen120071977
Hollywood120231969
Blakely119941968
Waldron119881978
Harrisburg119911968
Whitton119791967

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.