BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.84
20260.160.000.80
20270.120.000.77
20280.090.000.73
20290.050.000.70

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hillsboro619961966
Millerville420241966
Newton419981974
Dauphin Is 2420181996
Citronelle420232000
Pine Grove320241966
Lanett320241966
Liberty City320111980
Odenville320131996
Liberty City 2320232017
Nixburg 2320242002
Claiborne320052000
Drummond320242003
Summitt219811966
Sunny Eve220191966
Howard220131967
Maytown220231966
Sprague220231966
Brantley220241966
Birmingham219951969
Epes220051980
Grove Hill220191988
Fairview220241991
Mentone220141993
Woodville220241995

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.