BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Gray Catbird in South Dakota has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+197%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Catbird Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in South Dakota: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in South Dakota is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.04–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in South Dakota is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.04–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.030.47
20270.250.040.47
20280.260.040.47
20290.260.040.47
20300.260.040.48

Gray Catbird Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Gray Catbird in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilmot620251987
Winner420041969
Lane419691969
Long Draw420242006
Tripp320241976
Badlands320142012
Ft Thompson220111968
Laplant219751971
Lennox120251967
Howard120241980
Geddes120211970
Chamberlain120101968
Rockyford120132013
Volga120251975
Raymond120131989
Roswell119841981
Broadland119891967
Wind Cave Np120252001
Veblen120231970
Britton120221970
Forbes120211984
Long Lake120172001
Promise120141972
Owanka120102001
Roubaix Lk119691969

Gray Catbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.