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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Virginia has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in Virginia: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Virginia is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Virginia is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.000.41
20270.190.000.42
20280.190.000.42
20290.190.000.42
20300.190.000.42

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Branchville1120241966
Pungo520251983
Surry420251998
Irisburg420251990
Church Road319821982
Truhart220232023
Newville220242010
Chincoteag W120211997
Concord120242024
Mannboro120131967
White Stone120242015
Quinby120241968
Elamsville120162016
Ringgold120241995
Brodnax120241973
Newsoms120141980
Cornland120141975
Finchley120212006
Gladys120172016

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.