BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Arkansas has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Nuthatch in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Arkansas is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Arkansas is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.73
20270.280.000.73
20280.280.000.73
20290.280.000.72
20300.280.000.72

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Four Lakes1020011994
Ramsey619951967
Coal Hill420232003
Princeton420142003
Blakely319961975
Sims320192011
Hope219961984
Ashdown220061985
Magazine Mtn220251996
Poyen220071970
Hollywood220171971
Springhill220222010
Stephens220252013
Dry Fork220062006
Old Milo120251967
Locust Bayou120231969
Stamps119991967
Ozark Nf120222005
Boston Mtn.120252021
Crows119731973
Waldron120222007
Hatfield 2120182017
Havana120122012
Nance120141999
Poyen 2120192008

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.