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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in North Carolina has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+127%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in North Carolina: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in North Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in North Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.74.3
20263.01.74.3
20273.01.74.3
20283.01.74.4
20293.11.84.4

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South. Pines3019961995
Broad Creek2520241993
Sheep Ridge2420241994
Myrtle Grove2120241966
Montague1620241992
Youngsville1420241968
Green Swamp1420062002
Cypress Lakes1320242004
Shallotte1219911966
Raeford1220241990
Supply1020241992
California 21020242014
Cypress Cr1020221990
Wilgrove1020241996
Wards Corner920241966
Eden620241987
Maple Hill620231995
Rose520241980
Mooresville519991977
Genoa520241991
Lloyd Xroads520241999
Dudley520242003
Speed420241989
Jordan420241969
Arcola420241971

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippioklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.