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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in North Carolina has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+130%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in North Carolina: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in North Carolina is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in North Carolina is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.74.3
20273.11.84.4
20283.11.84.4
20293.11.84.4
20303.11.84.4

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South. Pines3019961995
Broad Creek2720251993
Montague1520251992
Youngsville1420251968
Sheep Ridge1420251994
Green Swamp1420062002
Shallotte1219911966
Cypress Lakes1220252004
Raeford1220251990
Biscoe1120251990
Myrtle Grove1020251966
Supply1020251992
Cypress Cr1020221990
Wilgrove1020241996
Wards Corner920241966
Jordan820251969
Ostwalt820252015
Gupton720252004
Maple Hill620231995
Mooresville519991977
Eden520251987
Lloyd Xroads520241999
Speed420251989
Sawmill420221990
California 2420252014

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippioklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.