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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Mississippi has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+159%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in Mississippi: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Mississippi is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.01–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+190%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±245.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Mississippi is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.01–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.4
20261.20.002.4
20271.20.002.4
20281.20.012.4
20291.20.012.4

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake Mary1519901987
Latimer 21220232021
Trace Madison920152015
Poplarville819781972
Walthall719871972
Neely620121974
Fontainbleau619781966
Diberville519871979
Cybur520191969
Fort Adams520122009
Beverly420111968
Lake420241970
Duffee420071973
Fayette320131971
Duck Hill319931970
Columbia320151975
Monticello320172007
Sandy Creek220001994
Lake Como219841983
Okatibbee L.220081995
Utica220061966
Forest220241972
Mt Carmel220111974
Trace Choctaw220172012
Trace Chickasaw220162012

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandnorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.