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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.87–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.87–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.822.9
20261.90.832.9
20271.90.842.9
20281.90.853.0
20291.90.873.0

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Osceola4220241991
Goethe2720242010
Olustee2420221992
Bloxham2220221987
Apalachicola2020241987
Alligator Pt1120241987
Port St Joe 2920192015
Punta Gorda819861986
Green Swamp820241987
Telogia619851968
Covington620161968
St Vincent I620241995
Pinelands620242002
Nixon619861985
Oak Grove520111967
Lovedale520111988
Port St Joe420141968
Romeo420231967
Blackwater420241987
Callahan420241987
Webb420241990
New Hope420112009
Seminole Hls320001967
Steinhatchee320221967
St Augustine320221967

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgialouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.