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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.94–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.94–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.94–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.883.0
20272.00.893.0
20282.00.913.0
20292.00.923.1
20302.00.943.1

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Apalachicola2620251987
Goethe2520252010
Olustee2020251992
Osceola2020251991
Alligator Pt1420251987
Ft Gadsden1120251969
St Vincent I1120251995
Port St Joe 2920192015
Punta Gorda819861986
Webb720251990
Telogia619851968
Covington620161968
Hilliard620251966
Bloxham620251987
Pinelands620242002
Nixon619861985
Oak Grove520111967
Lovedale520111988
Port St Joe420141968
Romeo420231967
Callahan420241987
New Hope420112009
Seminole Hls320001967
Steinhatchee320221967
St Augustine320221967

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgialouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.