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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Oklahoma has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+251%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in Oklahoma: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.21
20260.110.010.21
20270.110.010.21
20280.110.010.21
20290.110.010.21

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blanco319951969
Pushmataha220232011
Goodwater220071994
Big Cedar120232013
Phillips119971997
Ouachita Nf120182003
Mt. Herman120172010
Hee Mountain120242013
Bethel120181996

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.