BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Texas has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Nuthatch Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Nuthatch in Texas. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Texas is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Texas is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.17
20260.070.000.17
20270.070.000.17
20280.070.000.17
20290.060.000.17

Brown-headed Nuthatch Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Waverly620241969
Powell Park620211995
Town Bluff420101974
Mt. Selman420211998
Easton 2320222014
Big Sandy Bith220242015
Lance Rosier Bith220162016
Livingston220131971
Diboll220131969
Powell Park 2220242022
Fred220231995
Smyrna 2220232023
Smyrna220101995
Chandler 2120232010
Caledonia120241969
Pidcoke120022002
Morton120231972
Crossroads120241967
Athens120241988
Union Hill120181994
Lydia119711971
Liberty Hill119871987
Alexander St120191995
Weches120092000
Bon Wier120171996

Brown-headed Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseevirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.