BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Virginia has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Virginia is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Virginia is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211131
2026211131
2027211131
2028211131
2029211131

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fincastle6820241966
Nat Tunnel6620241981
Tryme6020241975
David5420131968
Port Royal5320191977
Colonial Pky5319981992
Wylliesburg5120191971
Hall4920231967
Quinby4720241966
Newsoms4620241967
Stanley4520241966
Surry4520241977
Branchville4320241966
Carters Brdg 24220242015
Taylorstown3920101967
Natural Brid3920241974
Covesville3920241967
Covington3820241966
Pungo3820241975
Taylorstown 23820242012
White Stone3720241966
Ringgold3620241976
Gloucester3520241992
Newbern3419821968
Big Island3420241968

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.