BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Virginia has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Virginia is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Virginia is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221132
2027221132
2028221132
2029221132
2030211132

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nat Tunnel10520251981
Fincastle7820251966
White Stone6020251966
Moran5920251996
Blacksburg5720251988
Port Royal5520251977
David5420131968
Colonial Pky5319981992
Surry5220251977
Tryme5120251975
Wylliesburg5120191971
Putnam4620251969
Quinby4620251966
Newsoms4620241967
Branchville4320241966
Taylorstown 24320252012
Natural Brid4220251974
Brodnax4020251973
Taylorstown3920101967
Carters Brdg 23820252015
Star Tannery3620251977
Covesville3620251967
Dryden3620251991
Ringgold3520251976
Gloucester3520251992

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.