BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Kansas has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+119%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Kansas: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Kansas is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 19–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Kansas is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 19–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251833
2026261833
2027261833
2028261933
2029261934

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington11320241968
Dalton9120241968
Pittsburg7820212000
Wreford7420241967
Bucyrus6820242022
Kanopolis6420241967
Trading Post6420242000
Melrose6220231967
Olathe5720211967
Galesburg5520241967
Grantville5420221967
Humboldt5120221968
Morehead4520242000
Rock Creek 24320242022
Dover4120221967
Buckeye3920231967
Berwet3620242000
Lincolnville3620242002
Olsburg3520242000
Hanover3220231969
Covert3220241967
Le Loup3220212000
Barclay3120241967
Reece2920242000
Seneca2620221967

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.