BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Kansas has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+127%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Kansas: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Kansas is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 20–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Kansas is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 20–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026261934
2027261934
2028271934
2029271934
2030272035

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington10320251968
Dalton9220251968
Pittsburg7820212000
Wreford7420241967
Galesburg7220251967
Kanopolis6820251967
Melrose6220231967
Trading Post5920252000
Olathe5720211967
Morehead5520252000
Grantville5420221967
Humboldt5120221968
Bucyrus5020252022
Dover4120221967
Buckeye3920231967
Rock Creek 23920252022
Goessel3720252000
Lincolnville3620242002
Olsburg3520252000
Ellinor3420251967
Reece3320252000
Barclay3220251967
Berwet3220252000
Le Loup3220212000
Hanover2720251969

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.