BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Wisconsin has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+237%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Wisconsin: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025131015
2026131115
2027131115
2028131115
2029131115

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paris6520241966
Beloit6220241998
Eden4220241966
Trempealeau4120241966
Raymond4120241970
Wiota4020241966
Pardeeville3520241967
Princeton3420241966
River Falls3420241998
Viroqua3120241966
Mukwonago 23120242005
Fall River3020241966
Washington I2920241968
N Freedom2920241966
Hebron2920241966
Clintonville2820241968
Brownsville2620241974
N Andover2620241967
Verona2620241991
Rolling Pr2520241967
Kiel2320221998
Oconto Falls2220231968
Mount Horeb2219901967
Mukwonago2220041998
Kendall2120231967

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.