BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Wisconsin has surged: up 226% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+226%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Wisconsin: up 226% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026131115
2027131115
2028131115
2029131115
2030131115

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beloit6020251998
Raymond4620251970
Trempealeau4020251966
Paris4020251966
N Freedom3720251966
Princeton3420241966
Viroqua3120241966
Pardeeville3120251967
N Andover3020251967
Fall River2820251966
River Falls2820251998
Eden2720251966
Mukwonago 22620252005
Brownsville2420251974
Washington I2320251968
Rolling Pr2320251967
Briggsville2320251999
Dresser2220251970
Oconto Falls2220231968
Hazel Green2220251966
Mount Horeb2219901967
Hebron2220251966
Gresham2220251998
Mukwonago2220041998
Wiota2120251966

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.