BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Massachusetts has surged: up 60× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

60×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Massachusetts: up 60× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 27–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 27–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025282531
2026292632
2027292632
2028302733
2029302733

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton8720191969
Belchertown5420241970
Marion5120241970
Mansfield3620241974
Cape Cod Ns3620071989
Wellfleet3420071975
Newburyport3420221971
N Oxford3320241969
N. Andover3020241995
S Barre2920241973
Maynard2620221972
Prattville2520191970
Wellfleet 22220242016
Warren2120091969
Warren 22120242010
Pittsfield2020161967
Littleton1920241971
E Dennis1820211970
Holden1820241977
Chesterfield1620241968
N Orange1520241968
Gay Head1520241996
E Pepperell1419941971
Monterey1320242019
Cheshire919941969

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.