BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in South Dakota has surged: up 206% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+206%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in South Dakota: up 206% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in South Dakota is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.02–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in South Dakota is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.02–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.010.21
20260.110.010.22
20270.120.010.22
20280.120.010.22
20290.120.020.22

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forbes520152015
Geddes220181989
Winner220232012
Wilmot220232023
Lennox120242011
Tripp120242014
Howard120141988
White Lake119921992
Chamberlain120112010
Volga120152015
Broadland119701970
Crow Creek120162016
Lane 2120072007
Laplant119861986

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.