BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in South Dakota has surged: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+279%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in South Dakota is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.03–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in South Dakota is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.03–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.020.23
20270.130.020.23
20280.130.020.24
20290.130.020.24
20300.130.030.24

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forbes520152015
Lennox320252011
Tripp320252014
Geddes220181989
Winner220232012
Wilmot220232023
Howard120141988
White Lake119921992
Chamberlain120112010
Volga120152015
Broadland119701970
Crow Creek120162016
Lane 2120072007
Laplant119861986

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.