BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in New Hampshire has surged: up 178× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

178×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in New Hampshire: up 178× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 9.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 9.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.213
2026118.413
2027118.714
2028118.914
2029129.114

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dover4720241974
East Kingston3520241999
Strafford3020241982
Concord2320241981
Epsom2020231981
Fitzwilliam1620241971
Brentwood1519981966
Canterbury1320241985
Peterborough1220241977
Hopkinton1120241983
Gilmantn I W1020241989
Walpole1020241980
Marlow920241972
Lempster720241974
Glen520241980
Mt Chocorua420241984
Wilmot320242005
Franconia320241985
Jefferson Hl120241986
Milan120241996
Stratford120241986
Dixvil Notch120022002
Clarksville120091987

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.