BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in New Hampshire has surged: up 189× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

189×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in New Hampshire: up 189× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 9.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 9.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.613
2027118.814
2028119.014
2029129.214
2030129.514

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dover5220251974
East Kingston3620251999
Strafford2420251982
Canterbury2420251985
Fitzwilliam2020251971
Concord2020251981
Brentwood1519981966
Epsom1320251981
Hopkinton1220251983
Gilmantn I W1220251989
Peterborough1120251977
Walpole1020251980
Lempster1020251974
Glen1020251980
Marlow920251972
Wilmot620252005
Mt Chocorua620251984
Franconia520251985
Jefferson Hl320251986
Milan120241996
Stratford120251986
Dixvil Notch120022002
Clarksville120091987
Jeffers Ntch120252025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.