BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in New York has surged: up 404% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+404%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in New York: up 404% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New York is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 15–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New York is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 15–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181421
2027181421
2028181421
2029181522
2030181522

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orleans7920251967
Naples6720251966
Churchville6520251968
Macdougall5620251969
Jones Beach4720131966
Penfield4620251968
Hamburg4520251967
Manorville4420241966
Huntington4020231966
Highland3820221967
St Johnsburg3620251968
Harris Hill3520252005
Cayuga3420251969
Canadice L3420251968
E Youngstown3320251966
Hauppauge3220181966
Ghent3020251966
Ballston Lk3019951968
North Easton3020251967
Purdy3020221980
Trumansburg2720241966
Cherry Hill2720191966
Mt Hope2620101967
Duanesburg2620251966
Corbettsvile2620251966

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.