BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in New York has surged: up 389% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+389%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in New York: up 389% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New York is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New York is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171420
2026171420
2027171421
2028181421
2029181521

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Naples5820241966
North Easton5120241967
Hamburg4920241967
Orleans4820241967
St Johnsburg4820241968
Churchville4820241968
Jones Beach4720131966
Manorville4420241966
Macdougall4220241969
Huntington4020231966
Penfield3920241968
Highland3820221967
Hauppauge3220181966
Ballston Lk3019951968
Purdy3020221980
Cayuga2920241969
Trumansburg2720241966
Canadice L2720241968
Cherry Hill2720191966
Mt Hope2620101967
Cicero Ctr2620241967
Cobleskill2520231966
E Youngstown2520231966
Crescent2520241998
Byron2420241968

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.