BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Louisiana has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Louisiana is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 54–84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
54–8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Louisiana is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 54–84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025685383
2026685383
2027685383
2028695483
2029695484

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carlisle11919881968
Easton11219901967
Ville Platte9520191988
Derry9219891967
Atchafalaya9220241989
Lafitte9019911967
Kraemer9020241997
Baton Rouge8420241995
Shaw8320241967
Marion8219961988
Derry 28220241990
Burr Ferry8020241987
Bickham7820241972
Keystone7720131967
Ramah7720241988
Clay7620241968
Franklinton7620242008
Berwick7420181987
Pine Prairie7419971995
Plettenberg7320221968
Longstreet7320241967
Rayville 27320242009
Mamou7219821967
Womack7220241999
Ivan7120131998

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.