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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Louisiana has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Louisiana is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 54–83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
54–8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Louisiana is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 54–83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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2027685383
2028685383
2029685483
2030695483

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carlisle11919881968
Easton11219901967
Ramah10520251988
Atchafalaya9720251989
Ville Platte9520191988
Derry9219891967
Roseland9120251967
Derry 29120251990
Lafitte9019911967
Bickham8620251972
Baton Rouge8520251995
Shaw8320241967
Marion8219961988
Keystone7720131967
Kraemer7620251997
Berwick7420181987
Pine Prairie7419971995
Plettenberg7320221968
Mamou7219821967
Burr Ferry7220251987
Franklinton7220252008
Flat Creek7120251998
Ivan7120131998
Natchez7120251992
Longstreet7020251967

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.