BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Arkansas has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 37 (95% range 30–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 37 (95% range 30–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026372944
2027372944
2028373044
2029373044
2030373044

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockesburg7920192010
Maynard6920251967
Stark6520251967
South Bend6420251967
Poyen5720071967
Farwell5420182010
Hope5320251967
Saffell5220191967
Centerton5020252010
Blakely4919991968
Augusta4920011967
Zion4620251967
Locust Bayou4520231967
Coal Hill4520231967
Crowley'S Ridge4520252011
Whitton4419911967
Nance4420251992
Fulton4320251967
Springhill4320222010
Stephens4320252010
Yellville4220252010
Kelso4220162010
Augusta 24120162002
Old Milo4020251967
Eudora4020251967

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.