BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in South Carolina has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 41 (95% range 30–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 41 (95% range 30–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025413052
2026413052
2027413052
2028413052
2029413052

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little Mtn9819881966
Walterboro8220171970
New Ellenton7520242010
Holly Hill6820241972
Green Sea6620242010
Pinewood6320191998
Kiawah Island5920241998
Prosperity5920241992
Rome5820241967
Kingstree5720102010
Salem Xrd5420191982
Olar5420191998
Ridgeway5320212010
Blacksburg5320131998
Cauthens Xrd5020211982
Pendleton4919761966
Owings4920041992
Plum Branch4920241977
Wagener4820241966
Adams Run4720241988
Landrum4619921972
Campobello4620242010
Dillon4520211970
Lowrys4320212017
Mount Pisgah4320211998

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.