BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in South Carolina has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in South Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 30–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in South Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 30–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026423053
2027413053
2028413053
2029413052
2030413052

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coward12020251966
Little Mtn9819881966
New Ellenton8220252010
Holly Hill7320251972
Rome7120251967
Green Sea7020252010
Bishopville6720251970
Pinewood6320191998
Nixville6320251998
Prosperity5920241992
Campobello5720252010
Kingstree5720102010
Owings 25520252005
Salem Xrd5420191982
Olar5420191998
Blacksburg5320131998
Kiawah Island5220251998
Red Bluff5220251996
Wagener5020251966
Cauthens Xrd5020211982
Pendleton4919761966
Owings4920041992
Greenwood4920251998
Ward4820252017
Plum Branch4720251977

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.