BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Arizona has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+114%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Arizona: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Arizona is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Arizona is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.923.8
20272.40.943.8
20282.40.963.8
20292.40.983.8
20302.41.03.9

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter2420141992
Pomerene1420251968
Amado1420251993
Bartlett Res1120251992
Portal1020251975
Cutter 21020182015
Patagonia920251969
Red Rock 2920242015
Ajo820011968
Pisinimo819931992
Florence719881970
Redington520251993
Casa Grande520221989
Coolidge419851974
Wickenburg420232017
New River320161975
Peña Blanca320251975
Aztec Peak219781978
Red Rock220111993
Sahuarita220251992
Mcneal220251995
Carr Mtn220251985
Cactus Forest220191991
Organ Pipe120231990
Dragoon120081993

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.