BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Arizona has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+99%Since 1970
39Routes In State
56Years

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Cardinal has surged in Arizona: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Arizona is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029
2.5Projected 2029 index
1.0–3.995% range
±68%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.40.933.8
20262.40.963.8
20272.40.983.9
20282.41.03.9
20292.51.03.9

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Arizona.
Cutter2420141992
Amado2020231993
Pomerene1120241968
Cutter 21020182015
Bartlett Res1020241992
Red Rock 2920242015
Ajo820011968
Pisinimo819931992
Florence719881970
Portal620241975
Patagonia520241969
Redington520231993
Sahuarita520241992
Casa Grande520221989
Coolidge419851974
Wickenburg420232017
Sunizona 2420232002
Carr Mtn420241985
New River320161975
Aztec Peak219781978
Red Rock220111993
Mcneal220241995
Cactus Forest220191991
Organ Pipe120231990
Dragoon120081993

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.