BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in West Virginia has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 16–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 16–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026231629
2027231629
2028231629
2029231629
2030231629

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rockport7620251966
Slate6920251980
Monongah5620221966
Hubbardstown5520251966
Pt Pleasant5320251973
Martinsburg5320251966
Henderson5020232002
Paradise4920251966
Spencer4320241986
Clinton4320251966
Stollings3720211986
Josephs Mill3720241993
Meadland3620251997
Mcdonald3520231987
Clendenin3420251979
Shanghai3320251995
Bebee3120251972
Cedarville2920231982
Hix2720251970
Olcott2520241966
Welch2420251980
Arlee2419791966
Fayetteville2319961980
Moundsville2320251972
Ghent2220251978

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.