BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in West Virginia has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 16–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 16–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231629
2026231629
2027231629
2028231629
2029231629

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Welch7420231980
Rockport6320241966
Bramwell5920231978
Monongah5620221966
Slate5020241980
Henderson5020232002
Hubbardstown4120231966
Hanover4020241980
Spencer3920231986
Pt Pleasant3820231973
Stollings3720211986
Josephs Mill3720241993
Martinsburg3720241966
Clinton3720241966
Hix3520241970
Meadland3520241997
Mcdonald3520231987
Nicut3420241986
Clendenin3320241979
Clear Creek3120241988
Washburn3120221974
Ruthbelle3120241975
Paradise2920231966
Cedarville2920231982
Moundsville2920241972

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.