BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Indiana has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 29 (95% range 23–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 29 (95% range 23–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026282334
2027292334
2028292334
2029292335
2030292335

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scottsburg7520251982
Washington7420251987
New Phila6720251982
Evansville5220221966
Shelbyville4920251983
Witts Station4920252000
Middletown4820251966
Pimento4820251981
Brookville4720251966
Millersburg4720241981
Lakeville4620241993
Anderson4620252000
Georgia4520251999
Cumback4420251966
Portage4320042000
Azalia3920251982
Wallace3720241999
Cyprss3720251999
Belmont3620241981
Friendswood3620241986
Spencer3520241967
Indian Spgs3520251982
Cross Plains3220251999
Newberry3120251999
Maplewood3020212000

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.