BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Indiana has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 29 (95% range 23–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 29 (95% range 23–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025282334
2026282334
2027292334
2028292334
2029292335

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington7120241987
Middletown6220241966
Scottsburg6020241982
Georgia5820241999
New Phila5520241982
Evansville5220221966
Knox5020241981
Brookville4820241966
Millersburg4720241981
Lakeville4620241993
Indian Spgs4520241982
Portage4320042000
Witts Station4120242000
Pimento4020241981
Thorntown3920241982
Wabash3820241981
Shelbyville3720241983
Celestine3720241979
Wallace3720241999
Belmont3620241981
Friendswood3620241986
Clear Spring3620241981
Spencer3520241967
Azalia3520241982
Galveston3320241981

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.