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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Michigan has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+146%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Michigan: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Michigan is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Michigan is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151119
2027151119
2028151119
2029151120
2030161120

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mottville4320251967
Galesburg3920251966
Howardsville3820251969
St Charles3720191967
Lawrence3620251969
Holt3620251969
Fowlerville3620191974
Coopersville3320251979
Drayton Plns3319871973
New Buffalo3320141992
Belding3220031983
Homer3220241975
Almena3120151993
Nashville3020251968
Belding 22920252004
Hartland2920111992
Barry S.G.A. 22820192013
Rochester2720251993
Hamburg2720011981
Hamburg 22720252004
Barry S.G.A.2620121995
Pettysville2519791969
Cohoctah2420252021
Bell Oak 22420252016
Mayfield2420252000

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.