BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Mississippi has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Mississippi is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 46 (95% range 31–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Mississippi is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 46 (95% range 31–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025463160
2026463160
2027463160
2028463160
2029463160

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
De Soto11620192008
Dundee8220221970
Eagle Lake7420242012
Tchula 27319941976
Leaf River6920132008
Tchula6819751970
Beverly6720111966
Vicksburg Np6620212016
Lake Mary6519901974
Mt Carmel6420161974
Neely6220121974
Warren Vick5920222018
Walthall5819871970
Panther Swamp Nwr5620182016
Monticello5520172007
Star5520242016
Olive Branch5420011966
Trace Chickasaw5220242012
Trace Madison5120192015
Columbia5020181969
Fontainbleau5019781966
Necaise5020221982
Duffee4920081973
Poplarville4719781972
Tupelo4720221966

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.