BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Texas has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
222Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Texas. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 42 (95% range 35–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
35–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 42 (95% range 35–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025413449
2026423549
2027423549
2028423549
2029423549

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin20720162006
Arenosa Crk18820241968
Diboll18720241968
Muldoon16720241970
Schroeder15919971967
Rhome13920241968
Moon Lake 213820242012
Oak Grove13319991967
Burton13120241996
Paige12920242015
Hearne11520241998
Decatur11420241995
Oak Grove 211320242003
Thornton 211020101985
Fannin11020231998
Hinkles Fer10920241968
Cottonwood10720241967
Agua Nueva10620231969
Mt. Selman10220241998
Smyrna10120101995
Goliad Prairie10120162004
Chandler9920041968
Caledonia9720241969
Athens9720241968
Three Rivers9620241994

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.