BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Texas has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
224Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Texas. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 35–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
35–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 35–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026423549
2027423549
2028423549
2029423549
2030423549

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin20720162006
Schroeder15919971967
Muldoon14920251970
Oak Grove13319991967
Fannin13020251998
Diboll12720251968
Paige12620252015
Moon Lake 212420252012
Burton11820251996
Decatur11420241995
Rhome11320251968
Oak Grove 211220252003
Thornton 211020101985
Agua Nueva10620231969
Smyrna10120101995
Goliad Prairie10120162004
Chandler9920041968
Arenosa Crk9720251968
Hobson9620251968
Livingston9620251969
Moon Lake9520111994
Whit Mtn.9320191994
Cottonwood9220251967
Lydia9220251967
Yoakum9220251994

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.