BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Tennessee has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 27–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 27–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026332740
2027332740
2028332740
2029332740
2030332740

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corryton Rd8620191966
Belotes Bend7720181966
Humboldt7520251966
Mt Olive7520241966
Trace Lewis7420172013
Climer6220041967
Lovell5720191966
Peytonsville5620251966
Big Sandy5520251966
Tibbs4920251966
Wrigley4420221966
Moscow4320251966
Indian Mound 24320232004
Indian Mound4219981966
Bradyville4120211966
Jefferson Cty4020111966
Allens Brdge4020231966
Trenton3920231966
Silver Pt3820241966
Walland3819891966
Tiptonville3620251966
Mansfield3620251966
Oliver Spgs3620221966
Brownsville3420251966
Silerton3420241966

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.