BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Kentucky has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 32 (95% range 25–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 32 (95% range 25–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025332540
2026332540
2027322540
2028322540
2029322539

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil15819971996
Paintsville12819951979
Sewell Shop9520231966
Boxville7219831966
Joy7220231966
Cumberlnd Gp5820181966
Goshen5219991966
Johnsonville4920211966
Cedar Grove4720241966
Million 24620242006
Gatewood4520191966
Kehoe 24420242005
Hodgenville 24420232008
Mckee4320241967
Kehoe4119921966
Keysburg4020241968
Levee 24020192007
Bardwell3920031967
Gesling3819731967
Beattyville3620011966
Hustonville3620241966
Bays Fork3620191999
Sulphur Lick3520241966
Buena Vista3420171966
Morganfield3420242022

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.