BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Kentucky has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 32 (95% range 25–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 32 (95% range 25–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026332540
2027332540
2028322540
2029322539
2030322539

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil15819971996
Paintsville12819951979
Boxville7219831966
Joy7220231966
Sewell Shop6820251966
Cumberlnd Gp5820181966
Shiloh5720251967
Goshen5219991966
Plum5020251966
Johnsonville4920211966
Cedar Grove4820251966
Million 24620242006
Lebanon Junction4620252000
Gatewood4520191966
Kehoe 24420242005
Hodgenville 24420232008
Keysburg4220251968
Kehoe4119921966
Levee 24020192007
Bardwell3920031967
Gesling3819731967
Beattyville3620011966
Morganfield3620252022
Bays Fork3620191999
Sulphur Lick3520241966

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.