BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in New Jersey has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+163%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in New Jersey: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026252130
2027252130
2028262130
2029262231
2030262231

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown 26020252013
Holmansville5320091969
Sandbrook4720251969
Woodbury Hgt4620251967
Cape May Ch4520131992
Pedricktown4520121991
Kemah Lake4420241966
Croton3520071970
Bennett Mill 23420252016
Croton 23420252008
Roosevelt3320221986
Greenwich3220251966
Dover3220231977
Ramseysburg3120251995
Albion2720221966
New Bedford2620241969
Hope2519941970
Midvale2220221967
Keyport2120221986
Six Points2020251978
Villas2019811979
Bennett Mill1920001966
Clarksville1919911969
Gillette1920251988
Cranbury1920251987

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.