BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in New Jersey has surged: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+156%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in New Jersey: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New Jersey is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New Jersey is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025252029
2026252130
2027252130
2028262130
2029262231

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holmansville5320091969
Pedricktown 25220242013
Cape May Ch4520131992
Pedricktown4520121991
Kemah Lake4420241966
Woodbury Hgt4220241967
Croton3520071970
Roosevelt3320221986
Dover3220231977
Sandbrook2920241969
Ramseysburg2920241995
Albion2720221966
New Bedford2620241969
Croton 22620242008
Hope2519941970
Six Points2320241978
Midvale2220221967
Keyport2120221986
Bennett Mill 22120242016
Villas2019811979
Bennett Mill1920001966
Clarksville1919911969
Winslow1920241989
Gillette1720241988
Del Haven1619911991

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.