BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Rhode Island has surged: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

45×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Rhode Island: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 26–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 26–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025332342
2026332442
2027342543
2028342543
2029352644

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wallum Lake3920241973
Block Island2920101987
Shannock2820241973
Quonset Pt2620241967
Sachuest Pt2019901966
Casimir Pulaski Sf1420182016
Pulaski419921991

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.