BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Pennsylvania has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Pennsylvania: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 19–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 19–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211823
2026211823
2027211924
2028211924
2029211924

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sardis6619741967
Stoneybreak5520241992
Clear Spring5120241966
Collegeville4820241971
Drehersville 24720242000
Jacobus4720241986
Ryde4620051968
Doe Run4420241969
West Grove4419961966
Pine Gr Mill4320241967
Beaver4220241969
Mount Joy3920241978
Mt Gretna 23920222001
Peru Mills3820241966
Middletown3820241973
Schwenksvill3820241988
Duvall3320211974
Plesant Grov3320241966
Mifflintown3120241966
Brunnerville 23120242010
Rector3019771966
Peters Mt3019941972
Aspers2919891968
Brick Tavern2920241990
Berwick2920241985

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.