BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Alabama has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-12%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Alabama is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 37–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
37–5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Alabama is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 37–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025443751
2026443751
2027443750
2028443750
2029433750

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Florian10920241967
Rock Chapel9620241995
Newton9120241966
Grangeburg8620241966
Gainestown Ferry8620151999
Triana8220121999
Epes8120241980
Liberty City8020111979
Elkmont7920241990
Cottonton7420241966
Wedgeworth7420241979
Latham 27420242005
Eufaula7420241996
Elamville7320241984
Perdido7320242021
Holt6620241993
Georgetown6520241994
Riverside6520131999
Blocton6220241969
Bay Minette6120241996
Linden6020231968
Valhermoso Spg 26020142014
Drummond6020242001
St. Elmo5920211996
Hillsboro5819961966

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.