BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Alabama has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Alabama is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 44 (95% range 37–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
37–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Alabama is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 44 (95% range 37–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026453752
2027443752
2028443751
2029443751
2030443751

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock Chapel9620241995
Newton9120241966
Castleberry9020251966
Autaugaville8720251996
Grangeburg8620241966
Georgetown8620251994
Latham 28620252005
Gainestown Ferry8620151999
Fairview8520251989
Elkmont8420251990
Triana8220121999
Wallsboro8120251966
Epes8120241980
Liberty City8020111979
Wedgeworth7720251979
Eufaula7420241996
Cottonton7220251966
St Florian7020251967
Howard7020251966
Warrior Std6920251966
Perdido6920252021
Elamville6620251984
Carrollton6620251993
Bay Minette6520251996
Riverside6520131999

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.