BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Maine has surged: up 49× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

49×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Maine: up 49× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Maine is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.2–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Maine is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.2–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.91.86.0
20264.01.96.0
20274.12.06.1
20284.22.16.2
20294.22.26.3

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kittery Pt2920241972
Westbrook2320241982
Turner 22320242011
Cornville1720242012
Rome1720241996
Bowdoin Ctr1620211992
Newcastle1220241987
Searsport1020242002
Cape Neddick920241974
Turner820101985
Freedom820221994
Hancock820241980
Hermon720192007
Otisfield Gr620151980
Biddeford520191976
Brooks520191989
Hartford320241989
Harmony320241992
Jefferson320101995
Bethel220162006
Greenwood220242007
Reeds220242021
Benedicta220192006
Church Hill220171993
Wilson Mills119951995

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.