BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Maine has surged: up 51× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

51×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Maine: up 51× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Maine is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.4–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Maine is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.4–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.06.2
20274.22.16.3
20284.32.26.4
20294.42.36.5
20304.52.46.6

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kittery Pt3120251972
Westbrook2320241982
Turner 22220252011
Rome1720241996
Bowdoin Ctr1620211992
Cornville1420252012
Newcastle1220241987
Cape Neddick920241974
Turner820101985
Greenwood820252007
Freedom820221994
Searsport820252002
Harmony720251992
Hancock720251980
Otisfield Gr620151980
Biddeford520191976
Hartford420251989
Brooks420211989
Hermon420212007
Brownfield 2420252010
Jefferson320101995
Bethel220162006
Charleston220212007
Benedicta220192006
Medway220252025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.