BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Maryland has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has risen sharply in Maryland: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Maryland is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 37–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
37–5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Maryland is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 37–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026443552
2027443652
2028443653
2029453653
2030453753

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Earlton15720242014
Olney13220251966
Island Creek13220251991
Madonna12020222009
Ijamsville11820251986
Wheaton11220251990
Emmitsburg10820251966
Pr Frederick10120251991
Williamsport9820251966
Forest Grove8020232011
Cokesbury7920251966
Davidsnville7120251982
Madison7020251966
Jessup7020252013
Millington6820251966
Warfieldsbrg6220251966
Honga5920251966
Pomonkey5720251966
Severna Park5420111982
Eklo5320181966
Largo5319811966
Pleasant Val5220251966
Smithsburg5020141966
Bachman Mill4920251966
St. George'S Island4920172015

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.