BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Nebraska has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+178%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Nebraska: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Nebraska is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 4.4–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Nebraska is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 4.4–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.64.19.1
20266.64.29.1
20276.74.29.2
20286.84.39.3
20296.94.49.4

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murdock7020242018
Humboldt3320242018
Gretna 22520242019
Brady2320241990
Surprise2220241967
Liberty 32120242009
Seward1820241967
Gretna1820181967
Irvington1820241967
Johnson1720241967
Belvidere1720241967
Tilden1720242019
Hampton1720242018
Julian1620241969
Boelus1520222018
Hendley1220242018
Liberty 21220072004
Liberty1120031967
Kearney1020241968
Richland1020241968
Petersburg1020231970
Sparta1020211967
Sargent1020242021
Kenesaw920241968
Thurston920241967

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.