BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Nebraska has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+155%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Nebraska: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.0 (95% range 4.5–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.0 (95% range 4.5–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.74.29.1
20276.74.39.2
20286.84.39.3
20296.94.49.4
20307.04.59.4

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gretna 24220252019
Murdock3620252018
Humboldt3520252018
Julian2720251969
Surprise2420251967
Liberty 31920252009
Gretna1820181967
Brady1620251990
Tilden1620252019
Boelus1520222018
Madison1420252018
Richland1320251968
Petersburg1320251970
Seward1220251967
Hampton1220252018
Liberty 21220072004
Liberty1120031967
Belvidere1120251967
Irvington1120251967
Hendley1120252018
Kearney1020251968
Lyons920252018
Kenesaw820251968
Almeria820211978
Bartley720251970

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.