BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Vermont has surged: up 995% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+995%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Vermont: up 995% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Vermont is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 4.9–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Vermont is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 4.9–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.34.58.2
20276.44.68.3
20286.54.78.4
20296.64.88.5
20306.74.98.6

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal2620251966
Bristol2520251995
Colchester1920251986
Fletcher1820251987
Grand Isle1820251970
W Rutland1720251967
Shaftsbury1620251967
Hinesburg1519941974
S Wallingfrd1120221969
Stowe920241994
Gaysville720251981
Hardwick620241983
Marlboro520251977
Post Mills520251975
S Reading420241971
Newbury 2420232008
Middlesex320251974
Landgrove220251997
East Haven220251996
Northfld Fls220251994
East Calais220251996
Stratton120242016
St Johnsbury120252000
Greensboro120251993

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.