BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Vermont has surged: up 869% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+869%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Vermont: up 869% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.7–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.7–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.04.37.7
20266.14.47.8
20276.24.57.9
20286.34.68.0
20296.44.78.1

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand Isle1920241970
North Pownal1520241966
W Rutland1520241967
Hinesburg1519941974
Colchester1420241986
St Johnsbury1220242000
Shaftsbury1120241967
S Wallingfrd1120221969
Gaysville1020211981
Stowe920241994
Hardwick620241983
Bristol620181995
Marlboro420241977
S Reading420241971
Newbury 2420232008
East Haven320241996
Middlesex320241974
Fletcher320241987
Northfld Fls220211994
East Calais220241996
Stratton120242016
Landgrove120231997
Post Mills120241975
Greensboro120241993

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.